1,000 days of war in Ukraine as Zelenskyy doubles down on aerial options with ATACMS, drones and missiles
Ukraine marked 1,000 days of war with Russia on Tuesday since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his ‘special military operation’ on Feb. 22, 2022, and initiated the largest conflict Europe has seen since World War II.
It isn’t only the scale of the fight that has resembled the infamous war that ended more than 75 years prior to Putin’s invasion. Parents loaded their children onto trains in the early days of the war, veins of trenches have scarred eastern Ukraine, and cities and towns have been completely decimated by air, land and sea-based bombardments.
But the war has done more than remind Western leaders of the global repercussions that come when major nations enter into mass conflict. A new type of warfare emerged out of the fight in Ukraine and the reliance on cheaply made drones to target cities, troop locations and military equipment that cost millions, cemented a new era in combat strategy.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday announced new plans to increase Ukraine’s production of long-range drones and missiles in its latest attempt to gain an edge over Russia, particularly as his troops grapple with dwindling artillery supplies and uncertainty mounts ahead of the Biden administration’s departure from the White House come January 2025.
Kyiv plans to produce some 30,000 long-range drones next year, along with 3,000 cruise missiles and ‘drone-missile hybrids,’ reported the Kyiv Independent.
The announcement made in a speech to Ukraine’s parliament on Tuesday came just two days after President Biden green-lit Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to hit targets inside Russia, and coincided with Kyiv’s first strike against a military arsenal near the Russian town of Karachev in the Bryansk region, more than 70 miles from Ukraine’s border, a U.S. official confirmed with Fox News Digital.
The move by the Biden administration marked a significant shift in U.S. policy, which has for years rejected calls that Ukraine should be able to use U.S.-supplied weaponry to target the Kremlin’s military depots inside Russia, fearing it would escalate the war beyond Ukraine’s borders.
But security experts have long criticized this policy, arguing the administration has helped create a war of attrition by denying and then capitulating on military capabilities like tanks, fighter jets, ATACMS and then strike permission.
British reports suggested that now that the U.S. has lifted its restrictions on U.S. supplied-ATACMS, the U.K. and France will likely follow suit and supply Ukraine with Storm Shadow and SCALP long-range missiles stipulation free, though no official announcements have been made.
The British Ministry of Defense would not comment on any plans to lift strike restrictions, but instead pointed to comments made Monday by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who emphasized ‘we need to double down’ on support for Ukraine during his address to leaders of the G-20.
It remains unclear how providing Ukraine with these capabilities at this time will affect the trajectory of the war, but according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, D.C., there are ‘hundreds of known Russian military and paramilitary objects in Russia’ that are in ATACMS strike range.
A report by ISW assessed that ‘conservatively’ there are 245 military objects in range of Ukrainian manned ATACMS.
The Institute concurred with reported observations that Russian aircraft – capable of conducting the deadly effective glide bomb strikes that have become a top combat resource for Moscow – have largely been redeployed out of range of Western-supplied long-range missiles.
However, the Institute argued this still left hundreds of exposed military options needed by Russia to continue its war machine.
‘The mass redeployment of assets away from such facilities would present significant challenges to Russian logistics throughout the theater, and neither open sources nor U.S. officials have indicated that Russian forces have engaged in such logistical upheavals,’ it assessed in an August report.
Putin took steps on Tuesday to lower Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear arsenals and further escalated Western concerns over the eruption of nuclear warfare as both Ukraine and Russia look to bolster their bargaining capabilities ahead of a Trump presidency.
The deployment of some 12,000 North Korean troops to Russia – at least 10,000 of which are believed to have already engaged in combat operations against Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region – is believed to be the contributing factor that shifted Biden’s stance on ATACMS strike permissions, according to reports this week.
Though the decision also closely followed escalating tensions in the Middle East involving Iran – which has also provided Moscow with drones since mid-2022 – as well as the 2024 presidential race secured by Trump, who has repeatedly claimed he will end the war, though he has yet to disclose how.
Concern and uncertainty surrounding how the Trump administration will handle U.S. aid to Ukraine and ties with NATO allies have prompted the Biden administration to take steps to position Kyiv to handle the changing times as best as it can.
Zelenskyy echoed this sentiment on Tuesday and said, ‘No one can enjoy calm water amid the storm. We must do everything we can to end this war fairly and justly.
‘One thousand days of war is a tremendous challenge,’ he added. ‘We must make the next year the year of peace.’