Bitcoin Bulls Face Growing Market Headwinds

• Consistent monthly increase since February indicates a change from accumulation to modest distribution, similar to the bad market of 2022.
• The annual growth rate of balances for whale accounts containing 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) has slowed to a negative trend, marking the fastest shrinkage this year.

On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) made its first move back over $72,500 in six weeks, leading to $342 million in liquidations for bullish leveraged bets. Investors are concerned that bears will maintain control ahead of the $9 billion monthly options expiration, even if there was a recovery bounce to $73,500.

With $3.4 billion in open interest for buys and $2.91 billion for puts, Deribit has a 70% market dominance for the May monthly options expiration. When Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on May 17, however, bulls were taken unawares.

Only $306 million worth of call options will be still in the money if Bitcoin remains below $74,000 as we approach Friday’s expiration. Put options with a strike price of $74,000 or above total $1.05 billion, providing a significant edge to pessimistic tactics.

Mounting Bearish Indications

As the holding structure continues to worsen across significant cohorts, CryptoQuant reports that more and more Bitcoin investors are seeing a reddening of their assets. A report released on Thursday by CryptoQuant said that the annual growth rate of balances for whale accounts containing 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) has slowed to a negative trend, marking the fastest shrinkage this year.

Consistent monthly increase since February indicates a change from accumulation to modest distribution, similar to the bad market of 2022, it said. “Dolphins” in the Bitcoin market, who own 100 to 1,000 BTC and are mostly owned by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, continue to increase each year, although at a far slower pace.

As the crypto bear market intensifies in response to growing geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges, the holding structure is deteriorating. The long-term holder supply hit a new high of 15.8 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant, but the bearish configuration indicates that new market entrants are not present.

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