Ripple’s XRP has successfully defended the $1.02 support level following the heavy selling pressure on Wednesday.
The current market conditions are driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over US monetary policy.
XRP has slightly recovered to $1.09. The weakness comes as investors reduce exposure to risk assets amid renewed conflict in the Middle East and increasingly hawkish interest-rate expectations.
Renewed US-Iran conflict weighs on investor sentiment
Risk appetite weakened this week after tensions between the United States and Iran escalated once again.
According to reports, the US military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran subsequently retaliated by targeting US military installations and assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, while US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran had ended.
The renewed conflict has prompted investors to move away from higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Market sentiment was also affected by the release of the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
The minutes showed Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided over the outlook for interest rates, with persistent concerns about inflation outweighing easing worries over the labor market.
Following the release, traders increased expectations for another interest rate hike.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing more than a 30% probability of a rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting, up from less than 20% a week earlier.
The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and tighter monetary policy expectations has contributed to a broad crypto market decline, with Bitcoin (BTC) slipping below $62,000.
Institutional appetite for XRP also showed signs of weakening.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that US spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $7.3 million in net outflows on Wednesday after two relatively quiet trading sessions.
Should ETF outflows continue over the coming days, XRP could face additional downside pressure as institutional demand weakens.
Market intelligence from CryptoQuant suggests large whale activity remains visible in both spot and futures markets.
The data also shows that most other on-chain indicators remain neutral.
CryptoQuant’s data also points to cautious optimism and leaves room for a potential recovery if buying activity strengthens.
XRP price analysis: Bears maintain control below key resistance
XRP was trading around $1.09 on Thursday, remaining firmly within a short-term downtrend.
The token continues to trade below its 50-day EMA at $1.173, the 100-day EMA at $1.275, and the 200-day EMA at $1.482.
Price action also remains confined within a downward-sloping parallel channel, reinforcing the bearish market structure.
Technical indicators suggest buying momentum continues to fade.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 42, indicating weak bullish momentum without entering oversold territory.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive but is losing strength, signaling that recent recovery attempts have failed to gain traction.
For XRP to improve its short-term outlook, bulls will need to reclaim several important resistance zones.
The first major resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of $1.173.
A decisive break above this level could see XRP rally towards the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.25 and $1.482. The major long-term resistance remains at $1.900.
However, unless XRP can reclaim its short-term moving averages, the broader technical outlook is likely to remain bearish.
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